Some very preliminary thoughts on the destruction of the Moskva
I just woke up to hear the news that the Russian ship Moskva was destroyed by Ukrainian missiles.
At this time, we do not know the loss of life, the condition of the ship, or if the Russians have military assets to replace its functions in the Black Sea.
But some preliminary thoughts inevitably arise.
1. I suspect this was likely carried out by the AFU group protecting Odessa, which has so far—and uniquely—suffered no significant Russian attack, and is therefore at close to 100% military effectiveness.
2. Like the helicopter raid against the fuel depot in Belgorod, I suspect this was a rogue operation that was not ordered by Kiev.
Rationale for 2.: The first reason to think 2 is because Ukraine military command and control has completely broken down due to Russian strikes. The second reason is because the timing is not politically advantageous to Kiev. The Zelensky regime had just released photos of Medvedchuk in captivity — he is known to be a close personal friend of Putin’s. The political implications of having Medvedchuk captive had not been played out before this attack on the Moskva happened. Granted, the Russian Foreign Ministry had slammed the door on any kind of hostage exchange, saying that Medvedchuk was not a Russian national, so therefore he was of no interest to Russia. But it was still early days insofar as the Medvedchuk situation is concerned. So it doesn’t seem reasonable politically that the Zelensky regime would order such an attack on the ship before playing out the Medvedchuk hand. It would make much more sense if this were a rogue attack.
3. Don’t be surprised if the Zelensky regime initially tries to downplay this attack on the ship. The two minor Ukraine incursions into Russian territory—the helicopter raid on civilian fuel depot in Belgorod, and the minor sabotaging of the rail line from Kharkov to Belgorod—pissed off the Russians something awful, to the point where they were threatening to attack Kyiv‘s military and political headquarters. (Remember, the Russians’ stated goal is to not destroy key political and military infrastructure in Kiev or of Ukraine generally.) Destroying their ship, however, is a major provocation for the Russians — so elements within the Zelensky regime (probably military high command) who are very aware of this might openly argue in favor of downplaying the whole situation.
4. This of course won’t happen — the Zelensky regime is going to bang the drum on this “decisive victory”. And this will absolutely enrage the Russians.
5. I would not be surprised if the Russians over the next 96 hours carry out coordinated and devastating attacks in retaliation. Especially if photos/video emerge which show the Moskva has indeed sunk. The Russian public — not Putin and the political leader ship — will dictate the ferocity of the response. And paradoxically, the more the Zelensky regime bangs the drum on sinking the ship to raise morale in Ukraine and convince NATO to send more weapons — that is, the more Kiev rubs the Russian people’s nose in this loss — the more terrifying and devastating the Russian military response will be.
6. If and when Russia launches this devastating response to the sinking of their ship, they will deliberately and systematically hit all key Ukrainian military and political command centers across the country, up to and including Lviv. Previously, the Russians had cut the lines of military communication from Kyiv to the rest of the country — but had not taken out the actual command nodes. That will no longer be the case from here on out.
1/2 cont’d below.
Some very preliminary thoughts on the destruction of the Moskva I just woke up to hear the news that the Russian ship Moskva was destroyed by Ukrainian missiles. At this time, we do not know the loss of life, the condition of the ship, or if the Russians have military assets to replace its...
t.me
2/2 cont’d from above.
7. Another paradox: The sinking of the Moskva will give Russian military command the rationale to go scorched earth on Ukraine’s political and military leadership, just as they would against any other enemy. The Russian Foreign Ministry will raise no objections, because of the Zelensky regime’s intransigence insofar as any negotiated settlement. As you recall, after the last meeting in Turkey, where there seemed to be some progress, the Zelensky regime abruptly backtracked on all the progress made. Lavrov was furious. So with this sinking of their ships, and a clear indication that the Zelensky regime has no interest in finding a negotiated settlement, the political niceties will be thrown out the window.
Russia is going to go into total-war mode.
In conclusion, this sinking of the Moskva might turn out to be the worst decision ever. Because up to this point, the Russians have deliberately tried to reign in the dogs of war. But if the Ukraine side has no real interest in coming to a negotiated political solution, and if now they are actually hurting the Russians — the Russians are going to stop fighting with one hand tied behind their back. And I think the most obvious response will be the use of strategic bombers, which have so far played no role, but which I think are about to be unleashed on a massive scale.
The sinking of the Moskva was an utter disaster — for the Zelensky regime and the people of Ukraine. In one stroke, it has turned Russia’s “special military operation” into an out-and-out war.
2/2 cont’d from above. 7. Another paradox: The sinking of the Moskva will give Russian military command the rationale to go scorched earth on Ukraine’s political and military leadership, just as they would against any other enemy. The Russian Foreign Ministry will raise no objections, because...
t.me
Domme beslissing om dat Russische marineschip aan te vallen!
Mike
www.thetimes.co.uk
️In Mariupol, the sea trade port was completely freed from the militants of "Azov", all the hostages were released - Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
""THERE IS A PROBLEM IN THE DONBASS: THERE ARE MORE THAN THREE THOUSAND CAPTIVES, SO THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING, WE WAITING FOR NEW RECEIPT.
These claims made by embedded journalist and Russian agent "Sladkov"
THERE ARE MORE THAN THREE THOUSAND CAPTIVES, SO THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING, WE ARE WAITING FOR NEW RECEIPT.
Relatives of a British soldier captured in Mariupol ask to be treated humanely
doezelfnormaal.nl
