Boodschap aan een Britse vriend van mij:
Well, Boris is definitely shaping up to be a kind of British Donald J. Trump. Tough on immigration, boosting the economy and delivering on his promises, the most important of which is of course Brexit. Here's how I see things developing:
Trump and Boris are now openly talking about opening up trade negotiations. Either these talks are already taking place (maybe the deal has even been cemented in the background already) or they are to begin shortly. But that's not the only country Boris wants to negotiate trade with. There's Australia, India and a host of other potential trading partners.
These talks take time. So will Boris trigger a hard Brexit on or before Jan. 31st? Most likely not. There's still a small possibility that he will "suddenly" and "unexpectedly" do so, but frankly I don't see this happening. The reason for this is that he knows Brexit will bring with it a transition period for the economy. In order to cushion the blow it's important to first have several deals with other nations in place.
Remember, there's a clause in Boris' Brexit deal that allows him to work out trade deals with non-EU partners. This means that once the deals are in place, Boris can still trigger a no-deal Brexit whenever he feels it's appropriate, even though he officially has a "transition deal" with the EU. It's brilliant! Remember, chess not checkers...
Mike
Well, Boris is definitely shaping up to be a kind of British Donald J. Trump. Tough on immigration, boosting the economy and delivering on his promises, the most important of which is of course Brexit. Here's how I see things developing:
Trump and Boris are now openly talking about opening up trade negotiations. Either these talks are already taking place (maybe the deal has even been cemented in the background already) or they are to begin shortly. But that's not the only country Boris wants to negotiate trade with. There's Australia, India and a host of other potential trading partners.
These talks take time. So will Boris trigger a hard Brexit on or before Jan. 31st? Most likely not. There's still a small possibility that he will "suddenly" and "unexpectedly" do so, but frankly I don't see this happening. The reason for this is that he knows Brexit will bring with it a transition period for the economy. In order to cushion the blow it's important to first have several deals with other nations in place.
Remember, there's a clause in Boris' Brexit deal that allows him to work out trade deals with non-EU partners. This means that once the deals are in place, Boris can still trigger a no-deal Brexit whenever he feels it's appropriate, even though he officially has a "transition deal" with the EU. It's brilliant! Remember, chess not checkers...
Mike
