Will Russia/DNR and Ukraine/UK find a compromise regarding Shaun Pinner and Aiden Aslin who received death penalty in Donetsk People's Republic court?
Both have 1 month to appeal the decision. They can avoid the execution if Russia and the UK manage to find common ground. Ukraine will play a lesser role in this issue.
After the two surrendered with their unit in Mariupol Russia took a bit of time to show the foreign fighters who are reported to hold dual citizenship in the media. On 12th April Ukrainian president Zelensky posted a photo of Viktor Medvedchuk in handcuffs, he suggested Medvedchuk could be exchanged for prisoners of war. Touted as Putin's ally in Ukraine, Wiktor is a politician and wealthy businessman. He was under the house arrest on suspicion of treason, his wife Oksana Marchenko managed to leave Ukraine 5 days before the war, footage of her from the border crossing with Belarus was published online.
It's unclear whether Medvechuk left his house and was hiding or if he was arrested by Ukraine as soon as the war began. Ukrainian government claims he was trying to leave Ukraine and was caught. Medvedchuk looked in a rather bad shape in the photo posted by Zelensky over 45 days after the beginning of the war.
Shaun Pinner and Aiden Aslin were shown in the Russian media and asked to be exchanged for Wiktor Medvechuk. Prior Wiktor's wife Oksana appeared with the same message, proposing her husband should be exchanged as a part of prisoner swap. The reaction to this idea on Russian social media was very negative. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on April 13 that "Medvedchuk is not a Russian citizen and has nothing to do with the special military operation''. Despite this statement both Pinner and Aslin were shown later on Russian state TV and spoke about the possible exchange offer, the idea that had to be given to them by Russian officials.
Russia is unlikely to be interested exchanging the 2 Britons set to be executed for regular Russian soldiers held as prisoners of war by Ukraine. Russia has over 3500 Ukrainian soldiers as prisoners of war from Mariupol alone that can be exchanged.
One thing is clear Boris Johnson is already in a shaky politicial position and can't afford to have 2 British citizens executed in Donetsk. What can the UK offer to Russia to save them or what can Boris pressure Ukraine to do?
Russia could tell the UK it should send less military aid to Ukraine or to lift sanctions. It's unlikely to happen even if behind closed doors the UK could agree to send less weapons tho unclear how it could be enforced if Pinner and Aslin were to be freed.
What can Ukraine do? Zelensky has no leverage over Russia and Russia will definitely not agree to do a regular POW exchange. Ukrainian officials already told the UK they will prioritize Pinner and Aslin putting them on top of the POW exchange list.
Some British officials said Putin is using the 2 as pawns to blackmail the UK. However they shouldn't be too confident that the execution wont go ahead if no deal is made. With thousands of foreign fighters in Ukraine Russia could use them as an example that it isn't just issuing empty threats when it says it will consider all foreign fighters as mercenaries which will be prosecuted in Donbass which has a death penalty.
If Russia tells the DNR to cancel the death sentence it will have something to show for it in return not to lose the face with the patriotic base and military that would consider it a betrayal. Russian officials could tell the UK to pressure Ukraine to hand over Ukrainian soldiers involved in torture and murder of Russian prisoners of war in exchange for Shaun Pinner and Aiden Aslin. This is something that could satisfy both the patriotic base and Russian military if the 2 Britons were to be let go. It would be unfavorable outcome for Ukrainian patriots and military if own citizens and soldiers were exchanged for the 2 dual citizens with British and Ukrainian passports.
Will Russia/DNR and Ukraine/UK find a compromise regarding Shaun Pinner and Aiden Aslin who received death penalty in Donetsk People's Republic court? Both have 1 month to appeal the decision. They can avoid the execution if Russia and the UK manage to find common ground. Ukraine will play a...
t.me
Mike
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